MLB, Predictability was a defining element of the 2019 League’s major baseball season, beyond the total circuit record.
FiveThirtyEight predicts that out of the 15 teams with the lowest odds of playing in the playoffs before the season, only the Oakland A has over 50% chance to play in the playoffs at any time of the season. (The athletes, who opened the season with the top 16 playoff odds, are the only team in the lower half of our prognoses to win a playoff spot.) The only other clubs in the bottom half to have overtaken the playoffs. chances to play in the playoffs by 40% at any time. The Arizona Diamondbacks and Seattle Mariners marked a turning point in the season. Diamondbacks spent eight days with a probability of 40% or more, surpassing 48.2% on May 4th. The Mariners reached a 40.8% chance of participating in the playoffs on April 11, and then quickly disappeared.
Teams that started in the top half of our playoff predictions have rarely had lower play ratings than the bottom half. In the American League, the winners of the Houston Astros Division, the New York Yankees and the Minnesota Twins have had good chances to play in the playoffs for a good part of the season.
I continue to be amazed by this pre-season forecast at @fangraphs . The bottom 15 teams forecasted, all at under 25%, never exceeded 30% chance at any point in the season. And are the bottom 15 of 16 teams to make the playoffs right now. (Redsox joining the crew.) pic.twitter.com/zBzftlso3X
— Tangotiger (@tangotiger) 21 September 2019
The FanGraphs produced a similar model with their playoff probabilities, and even did a little better than ours: its last 15 in the pre-season included the Colorado Rockies, ranked 15th in our pre-season standings, and excluded the a.
The number of players in MLB playoffs widened in 2012. However, even with the double wild card format and 10 total playoff positions, there were not many dramas in September. As of September 13, eight teams had had room for the playoffs or had 90% or more chances to play in the playoffs and would reach the same goal. The American League wildcard run and the Central League crown were up for grabs last week, and second place in the National Central League, either the Milwaukee Brewers or the San Luis Cardinals, was assured of a joker position.
By some measure, there has never been such a large division between baseball players Haves and Have Nots. Super teams and tank teams have taken over: for the first time in MLB history, four teams have recorded more than 100 wins in a season, with the Astros, Yankees, and Twins eclipsing the mark to capture their respective players. divisions in the American League and the Dodgers. exceeding it in the National League. And for the second time in MLB history, there were four teams with more than 100 losses in one season.
Super teams such as Dodgers and Astros have cleverly acquired talent and become player development machines. Meanwhile, the tank became more tolerated, in part because the Astros and Cubs offered models, using premium selections accumulated over more than 100 seasons of defeat to help build clubs. championship.
And maybe these trends also make October baseball more predictable. The last three World Series champions have won more than 100 regular-season games before their title. The Astros and Dodgers are the favorites of the World Series, as they did in 2017. If they do, the end of the post-season MLB seems to be an inevitable conclusion of an incredibly predictable season.